YanBeiNa expressed securities

Crude oil prices oscillation intensifies, OPEC production by once again become the focus

Last week WTI, brent futures contracts were closed at $45.52 / barrel and $44.85 / barrel, basic and flat last week, but within the last week because of the United States by the economic data drag, once plunged nearly $5, but falling inventories and OPEC will in this week 15, the may decide to cut back again, and stable prices. OPEC now faces difficult choice, if can't cut prices back above $60, no doubt, will cause a huge blow to the economies; But if prices hedge funds by financial push to a sharp rise in, on global economic recovery cause strong strike, and may affect long-term income maximization.

Pesticide and fertilizer prices continue to rise

The main pesticides and fertilizers last week continue to rise in price: long triangle small and medium-sized manufacturers actual clinch a deal valence glyphosate rose 7.42% to 28500 yuan/ton; The domestic key regional urea production, wholesale, retail price rise respectively 6.45%, 5.26%, and 9.14% to 1980 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, 2150 yuan/ton; As the price of urea an important vane shandong linyi area prices rose 7.37%.Last week to put forward the BPC Brazil potassium chloride 3-5 month's latest offer CFR750-us $765 / mt, this offer the second half of the year CFR1000 than earlier 08 dollar/tons of lower prices for $245-250 tons, compared with China, India's more than $600 / tons of contract price is about $100. In 2009 China's import FOB quotation may basic stability potassium fertilizer, or increased slightly. Domestic potash prices in the short term may be due to seasonal factors and continue to rise, but this is with the current chemical fertilizers, the background of the rise in related.

Last week, March 5, two ministries and state issued a notice: allow the northeast, Inner Mongolia, xinjiang, sichuan area enterprise advance to light store urea on the market. The purpose of this notice is still to meet the agricultural production, chemical fertilizer price stability, the short term may inhibit urea price rises considerably, but later urea market price is still by the market supply and demand of the decision, specifically, depends on the farmer's actual purchase and urea enterprise starts changes.